Thursday, 28 May 2026

The Briefing

CAC payback periods stretching past two years signal dangerous unit economics, yet the 32-month median for SIM–SSM ARR bands reveals how tolerance for burn has quietly returned to private markets—a mirror image of 2021's optimism, minus the SPAC frenzy. This briefing examines whether stretched payback windows reflect strategic patience or founder delusion, with Dave Kellogg's rising work on go-to-market efficiency providing the analytical scaffolding and new benchmarks on AI-powered security illustrating where capital is still flowing despite tightened underwriting. The real tell will be whether companies above 24 months can demonstrate credible paths to Rule of 40 or simply become the next cohort of down-round casualties when growth stalls.

Today's Number

CAC Payback Period

32

SIM–SSM ARR band

Active DebateAI in Finance

KeyBanc vs OnlyCFO

Claim 6 shows nearly all SaaS companies expect to invest in AI with anticipated operational impacts, while claim 9 indicates over 50% of finance leaders lack an AI strategy, suggesting investment intention without strategic clarity.

Nearly all SaaS companies in the survey expect to invest in AI in 2025, with impacts to business operations anticipated within the next 3 years
— KeyBanc Capital Markets & Sapphire Ventures 2025 SaaS Survey: AI-Driven Growth & Profitability Focus
Over 50% of finance leaders have no AI strategy for adopting AI into finance and accounting
— How to AI (CFO Edition): AI Adoption Strategy and Finance Use Cases
Rising Author

Dave Kellogg

3 new articles in the last 60 days · up 90% vs prior 60d · 207 all-time

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Fresh BenchmarkTomasz Tunguz (Theory Ventures)

AI-Powered Security: Building Agentic Defense Systems for the Enterprise

This article discusses the emerging challenge of securing enterprises where both attackers and defenders operate as autonomous AI agents. Featuring CISO Jonatha

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