Saturday, 23 May 2026

The Briefing

A 32-month CAC payback in the $1M-$10M ARR band signals that even nimble software companies are stretching toward the inefficiency thresholds once reserved for bloated enterprises—a troubling drift as capital costs remain elevated. The Q1 private benchmarks underscore this tension: growth demands investment, but investors now penalize patience. Kellogg's recent work on go-to-market velocity offers tactical counterweight, while the emerging agentic security framework reveals where AI spend might actually compress payback curves rather than inflate them. The bet implicit in today's data is that automation can rescue unit economics faster than salesforce expansion—plausible in security, dubious elsewhere. Watch whether Q2 figures validate the security outlier or confirm broader CAC deterioration.

Today's Number

CAC Payback Period

32

SIM–SSM ARR band

Active DebateAI in Finance

KeyBanc vs OnlyCFO

Claim 6 shows nearly all SaaS companies expect to invest in AI with anticipated operational impacts, while claim 9 indicates over 50% of finance leaders lack an AI strategy, suggesting investment intention without strategic clarity.

Nearly all SaaS companies in the survey expect to invest in AI in 2025, with impacts to business operations anticipated within the next 3 years
— KeyBanc Capital Markets & Sapphire Ventures 2025 SaaS Survey: AI-Driven Growth & Profitability Focus
Over 50% of finance leaders have no AI strategy for adopting AI into finance and accounting
— How to AI (CFO Edition): AI Adoption Strategy and Finance Use Cases
Rising Author

Dave Kellogg

3 new articles in the last 60 days · up 90% vs prior 60d · 207 all-time

Read top article →
Fresh BenchmarkTomasz Tunguz (Theory Ventures)

AI-Powered Security: Building Agentic Defense Systems for the Enterprise

This article discusses the emerging challenge of securing enterprises where both attackers and defenders operate as autonomous AI agents. Featuring CISO Jonatha

Explore the data →