Theory Ventures (Tomasz Tunguz's blog) · 2026-02-25 · 99d

Saudi Aramco's Limited IPO Float Makes It a Poor Precedent for Mega-IPOs Like SpaceX

Saudi Aramco's $29.4B IPO is not a valid proxy for assessing whether mega-IPOs like SpaceX can succeed, as it floated only 1.5% of the company with government maintaining 97% ownership. Companies like Alibaba and SoftBank, which expanded their public float significantly over time, provide better precedents. The article argues that even with pre-IPO tender offers releasing liquidity, the market has never successfully absorbed a trillion-dollar IPO where capital raising was the primary goal.

11 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

Alibaba Current Float

86%

actual

Current state

Alibaba IPO Proceeds

231$B

actual

2014

Alibaba Initial Float

15%

actual

2014 IPO

Alibaba September 2015 Unlock Impact

52%

decline

Stock price fall from $120 to $58

Anthropic Tender Valuation 2025

350$B

actual

First tender offer valuation

Aramco Float 2026

2.4%

actual

Six years post-IPO

Aramco IPO Proceeds

29.4$B

actual

Largest IPO in history

Aramco Initial Float

1.5%

actual

2019 IPO

Aramco Market Cap at IPO

1.7$T

actual

2019

OpenAI Secondary Sale 2025

10.3$B

actual

Pre-IPO liquidity event

Standard IPO Lockup Period

180days

typical

Insider selling restriction