Saudi Aramco's Limited IPO Float Makes It a Poor Precedent for Mega-IPOs Like SpaceX
Saudi Aramco's $29.4B IPO is not a valid proxy for assessing whether mega-IPOs like SpaceX can succeed, as it floated only 1.5% of the company with government maintaining 97% ownership. Companies like Alibaba and SoftBank, which expanded their public float significantly over time, provide better precedents. The article argues that even with pre-IPO tender offers releasing liquidity, the market has never successfully absorbed a trillion-dollar IPO where capital raising was the primary goal.
Metrics in this report
86%
actual
Current state
231$B
actual
2014
15%
actual
2014 IPO
52%
decline
Stock price fall from $120 to $58
350$B
actual
First tender offer valuation
2.4%
actual
Six years post-IPO
29.4$B
actual
Largest IPO in history
1.5%
actual
2019 IPO
1.7$T
actual
2019
10.3$B
actual
Pre-IPO liquidity event
180days
typical
Insider selling restriction