Tomasz Tunguz (Theory Ventures) · 2020-10-19 · 2054d

Public Market Valuation Premium Returns to High-Growth Software Companies

Enterprise value to forward ARR multiples for high-growth software companies (50%+ annual growth) have increased nearly 6x since 2016, reaching over 10x by 2020. Public market valuations have become more favorable than private market valuations starting in 2019, reversing a multi-decade trend. This shift suggests IPOs, direct listings, and SPACs will become more attractive financing options for later-stage founders.

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Metrics in this report

Enterprise Value to Forward ARR Multiple

5x

median

Public high-growth software companies, 2016-2018

Enterprise Value to Forward ARR Multiple

8x

median

Public high-growth software companies, 2018

Enterprise Value to Forward ARR Multiple

10+x

median

Public high-growth software companies, 2020

Forward ARR Multiple Growth

6x

total growth

Software companies growing 50%+ annually, 2016-2020

Growth Rate Threshold for Multiple Expansion

30%

minimum annual

Software companies benefitting from valuation multiple expansion

Growth Rate Threshold for Significant Multiple Expansion

50%

minimum annual

Software companies experiencing 6x growth in forward ARR multiple