Tomasz Tunguz Blog (Theory Ventures) · 2025-04-03
· 427d
Tariff Impact on Startup Economics and Growth: AI Acceleration as a Mitigating Factor
Tariffs pose dual threats to startups through input costs and revenue uncertainty, with tech companies facing 48% international revenue exposure. However, software companies' high gross margins (70%+) and accelerating AI adoption for cost reduction may offset near-term headwinds, supported by long-term IT spend growth forecasts reaching 4% of GDP by 2030.
Metrics in this report
Current IT Spend as % of GDP
2.5%%
point estimate
United States IT spending
International Revenue Exposure - S&P 500
13%%
mean
European revenue for broad market
International Revenue Exposure - S&P 500
29%%
mean
Total abroad revenue for broad market
International Revenue Exposure - Technology
15%%
mean
European revenue for tech companies
International Revenue Exposure - Technology
48%%
mean
Total abroad revenue for tech companies
Nasdaq Decline YTD
11%%
point estimate
Since beginning of 2025
Projected IT Spend as % of GDP
4%%
point estimate
United States IT spending by 2030
Software Gross Margins
70%+%
median
Software company industry average