From Jevon's Paradox to Veblen Goods: How AI Pricing Will Reshape Competitive Advantage
As AI model pricing shifts from declining to premium, the economics of AI adoption fundamentally changes from cost minimization to capability maximization. Companies with sufficient capital will gain outsized advantages, potentially creating a new competitive moat where balance sheets determine AI leadership rather than efficiency.
Metrics in this report
9 to 19billion USD
comparison
End 2025 to March 2026
150000subscribers
point-in-time
Tomasz Tunguz blog readership
15-25$ per 1M tokens
rumored range
Claude Mythos model input tokens
75-150$ per 1M tokens
rumored range
Claude Mythos model output tokens
4.6$ per 1M tokens
current
Claude model input tokens
25$ per 1M tokens
current
Claude model output tokens
2$ per 1M tokens
rumored
GPT-4.5 model input tokens
8$ per 1M tokens
rumored
GPT-4.5 model output tokens
5-6xmultiple
estimated
Inference pricing comparison
25billion USD
point-in-time
February 2026
17%
two-month period
December 2025 to February 2026
10-20xmultiple
range
AI token costs over past 18 months