Tomasz Tunguz Newsletter · undated · undated

Tomasz Tunguz's AI & Venture Capital Newsletter Archive

A collection of insights from venture capitalist Tomasz Tunguz at Theory Ventures covering AI market dynamics, SaaS competition, agent pricing, infrastructure bottlenecks, and organizational impacts of AI adoption. The archive spans February-March 2026 and addresses topics ranging from AI model commoditization to employment effects and infrastructure constraints.

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Metrics in this report

AI Production Agent Code Execution

65%

median

nodes running as deterministic code vs LLM inference

Amazon AI Failure Cost

6.3$M

total

lost orders from AI coding failures

DeepSeek V3 Cost Reduction

90%

vs GPT-5.2

equivalent benchmark performance

Google Gemini Serving Cost Reduction

78%

YoY

cost per token served

Google Gemini Token Processing Growth

52x

YoY

10B tokens/minute volume

Hyperscaler AI Capex Ratio

12multiple

mean

dollars spent on capacity per dollar earned from AI

Microsoft Azure Growth

39%

YoY

cloud revenue growth

Newsletter Subscriber Base

150000subscribers

total

founders & operators receiving daily AI/VC insights

Public SaaS Gross Margin

76%

median

across 69 public companies

US Package Damage Rate Increase

30%

YoY

85 million packages in 2024

VC Exit via Secondaries

31%

share

of total exit value