kellblog.com · 2016-02-09 · 3768d

SaaS Valuation Floor: Analyzing the Rebound Opportunity in 2016

Dave Kellogg analyzes SaaS stock valuations using forward twelve-month (FTM) enterprise value to revenue multiples, arguing that current trading levels of 3.2x represent a 35% discount to historical averages and a potential buying opportunity if revenue forecasts remain stable. The article examines the psychological battle between fear-driven further declines and greed-driven recovery, suggesting that high-quality public SaaS companies are trading at historically low multiples despite risk of additional correction.

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Metrics in this report

Potential Return from Reversion to Mean

50%

approximate

From current 3.2x to historical average multiples

SaaS EV/FTM Revenue Multiple

3.2x

current

SaaS stocks as of February 2016

SaaS EV/FTM Revenue Multiple

4.9x

mean/average

SaaS stocks since 2005

SaaS EV/FTM Revenue Multiple Decline

66%

from peak

January 2014 peak to February 2016

SaaS EV/FTM Revenue Multiple Discount

35%

below average

Current vs. historical average since 2005

SaaS EV/FTM Revenue Multiple Floor

2.0x

historical minimum

Breached only once in past decade during 2008 crisis