SaaS Valuation Floor: Analyzing the Rebound Opportunity in 2016
Dave Kellogg analyzes SaaS stock valuations using forward twelve-month (FTM) enterprise value to revenue multiples, arguing that current trading levels of 3.2x represent a 35% discount to historical averages and a potential buying opportunity if revenue forecasts remain stable. The article examines the psychological battle between fear-driven further declines and greed-driven recovery, suggesting that high-quality public SaaS companies are trading at historically low multiples despite risk of additional correction.
Metrics in this report
50%
approximate
From current 3.2x to historical average multiples
3.2x
current
SaaS stocks as of February 2016
4.9x
mean/average
SaaS stocks since 2005
66%
from peak
January 2014 peak to February 2016
35%
below average
Current vs. historical average since 2005
2.0x
historical minimum
Breached only once in past decade during 2008 crisis