How Public Market Downturns Ripple Into Private Series A Valuations with a Six-Month Delay

Tomasz Tunguz analyzes the lagged correlation between public market performance (Nasdaq) and private Series A valuations, finding a 0.47% rise in median Series A valuations for every 1% increase in quarterly Nasdaq returns, but only after a two-quarter delay. While public markets influence private valuations, they explain only 7.5% of the variance; interest rates and venture-specific factors drive most valuation changes with a much stronger -0.43 correlation.