SaaStr · 2015-06-10 · 4012d

The 'Dry Bubble' in VC: High Valuations, Low Cash Returns

Jason Lemkin analyzes Bill Gurley's warning about a 'dry bubble' in venture capital where companies have high paper valuations but minimal cash has been returned to investors. The gap between TVPI (paper markups) and DPI (actual cash distributions) is at historic highs, with 75% of invested capital trapped in private unicorns. The situation could be resolved by IPOs of major companies like Uber and Airbnb, or represent a fundamental valuation disconnect.

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Metrics in this report

Capital Trapped in Private Unicorns

75%

as of 2014

percentage of invested venture capital in private companies

Paper Markup Example

100x

single example

investment from $10M to $1B valuation