kellblog.com · 2015-04-27 · 4056d

Survivor Bias in SaaS Churn and Retention Rate Calculations

This article explains how survivor bias distorts SaaS churn and retention calculations, using examples from WWII and mutual funds to illustrate the concept. The author demonstrates that calculating retention rates only from continuing customers inflates results, and shows how Hortonworks' S-1 filing exhibits this bias, with a practical example showing the difference between biased (111%) and unbiased (71%) expansion rates.

2 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

Non-Biased Expansion Rate

71%

example case

Same SaaS company excluding survivor bias

Survivor-Biased Expansion Rate

111%

example case

SaaS company with customer churn