kellblog.com · 2015-04-27
· 4056d
Survivor Bias in SaaS Churn and Retention Rate Calculations
This article explains how survivor bias distorts SaaS churn and retention calculations, using examples from WWII and mutual funds to illustrate the concept. The author demonstrates that calculating retention rates only from continuing customers inflates results, and shows how Hortonworks' S-1 filing exhibits this bias, with a practical example showing the difference between biased (111%) and unbiased (71%) expansion rates.
Metrics in this report
Non-Biased Expansion Rate
71%
example case
Same SaaS company excluding survivor bias
Survivor-Biased Expansion Rate
111%
example case
SaaS company with customer churn