kellblog.com · 2016-02-09 · 3768d

SaaS Valuation Floor Analysis: Assessing Remaining Downside Risk in 2016

Dave Kellogg analyzes SaaS stock valuations in February 2016, comparing forward revenue multiples that have declined from 7.7x to 3.3x since January 2014. He establishes a valuation framework suggesting SaaS stocks have 30% downside potential to reach a floor of 2.0x revenues, while presenting the contrasting opportunity for 50%+ upside returns if sentiment shifts toward greed.

8 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

Downside Risk Potential

30%

worst case

SaaS stocks to floor valuation

On-Premises Software Valuation Range

2.0-3.0x revenue

convergence range

Quality enterprise software

S&P 500 P/E Ratio

15multiple

historical convergence

S&P 500 index

SaaS Forward Revenue Multiple

7.7x revenue

historical peak

January 2014

SaaS Forward Revenue Multiple

3.3x revenue

current

February 2016

SaaS Normal Valuation Range

3.0-5.0x revenue

range

SaaS companies

SaaS Valuation Floor

2.0x revenue

floor

SaaS companies

Upside Return Potential

50%

minimum

SaaS bounce to mid/high range