kellblog.com · 2016-02-09
· 3768d
SaaS Valuation Floor Analysis: Assessing Remaining Downside Risk in 2016
Dave Kellogg analyzes SaaS stock valuations in February 2016, comparing forward revenue multiples that have declined from 7.7x to 3.3x since January 2014. He establishes a valuation framework suggesting SaaS stocks have 30% downside potential to reach a floor of 2.0x revenues, while presenting the contrasting opportunity for 50%+ upside returns if sentiment shifts toward greed.
Metrics in this report
Downside Risk Potential
30%
worst case
SaaS stocks to floor valuation
On-Premises Software Valuation Range
2.0-3.0x revenue
convergence range
Quality enterprise software
S&P 500 P/E Ratio
15multiple
historical convergence
S&P 500 index
SaaS Forward Revenue Multiple
7.7x revenue
historical peak
January 2014
SaaS Forward Revenue Multiple
3.3x revenue
current
February 2016
SaaS Normal Valuation Range
3.0-5.0x revenue
range
SaaS companies
SaaS Valuation Floor
2.0x revenue
floor
SaaS companies
Upside Return Potential
50%
minimum
SaaS bounce to mid/high range