onlycfo.io · 2024-11-09 · 572d

State of the Cloud 2024: Private vs Public Valuations, IPO vs M&A, and AI Pricing Implications

The article analyzes Battery Ventures' OpenCloud 2024 report, revealing that private cloud companies now trade at a 3.2x valuation premium over public peers (implying 60% required growth rates), while cloud multiples have stabilized despite ongoing gross margin compression risks from AI integration. The piece emphasizes that M&A has become more likely than IPO exits for unicorns, pricing models require AI-driven updates, and sales commission plans must evolve beyond ARR-based structures.

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Metrics in this report

Cloud IPOs vs M&A Exits

2IPOs vs 22 acquisitions

Cloud company exits in 2024

Cloud Index YTD Return

-1.0percent

actual

As of October 31, 2024

EV/NTM ARR Multiple (Private)

23.4x

median

Private cloud companies, YTD 2024

EV/NTM ARR Multiple (Public)

7.3x

median

Public cloud companies, YTD 2024

Implied Required Revenue Growth Rate (Private)

60percent

target

5-year hold period at 3x cost of capital, 2024 YTD private multiples

Private vs Public Valuation Premium

3.2x

median

Cloud companies, YTD 2024

Q3 2024 Earnings Beat Rate (Cloud Companies)

100percent

median

29 cloud companies reporting Q3 2024 results

Q3 2024 Median Beat Magnitude (Cloud Companies)

2.4percent

median

29 cloud companies reporting Q3 2024 results