Software's Biggest Winners & Losers: Lessons from Valuation Changes Over the Past Year
The article analyzes relative valuation multiple changes across public cloud and software companies over the past year, identifying companies that gained or lost revenue multiple rankings and examining the underlying drivers. Key winners like Wix and Guidewire improved by growing revenue while simultaneously increasing FCF margins, while losers like Bill.com suffered from massive multiple compression despite their historical dominance. The analysis reveals that investors are rewarding revenue growth paired with operational efficiency and FCF positivity, particularly for companies that previously burned significant cash.
Metrics in this report
23%percent
Paycom expected growth rate when held 15th revenue multiple ranking one year prior
18%percent
Paycom actual reported revenue growth (missed 23% expectation)
11%percent
Paycom current expected NTM growth rate after missing expectations
26%percent
Wix, improved from 16% to 26% year-over-year
13%percent
Wix, maintained flat growth rate while expanding margins
21.5xmultiple
top-quartile
CrowdStrike, #1 ranked public cloud company as of July 2024
11.1xmultiple
top-10
HubSpot and Adobe, #9-10 ranked public cloud companies as of July 2024
57xmultiple
peak
Bill.com in 2021 when it held #1 revenue multiple ranking
28%percent
SentinelOne growth deceleration from previous highest-growth status