onlycfo.io · 2024-07-12 · 692d

Software's Biggest Winners & Losers: Lessons from Valuation Changes Over the Past Year

The article analyzes relative valuation multiple changes across public cloud and software companies over the past year, identifying companies that gained or lost revenue multiple rankings and examining the underlying drivers. Key winners like Wix and Guidewire improved by growing revenue while simultaneously increasing FCF margins, while losers like Bill.com suffered from massive multiple compression despite their historical dominance. The analysis reveals that investors are rewarding revenue growth paired with operational efficiency and FCF positivity, particularly for companies that previously burned significant cash.

9 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

23%percent

Paycom expected growth rate when held 15th revenue multiple ranking one year prior

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

18%percent

Paycom actual reported revenue growth (missed 23% expectation)

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

11%percent

Paycom current expected NTM growth rate after missing expectations

Operating Margin

26%percent

Wix, improved from 16% to 26% year-over-year

Revenue Growth Rate

13%percent

Wix, maintained flat growth rate while expanding margins

Revenue Multiple (EV/Revenue)

21.5xmultiple

top-quartile

CrowdStrike, #1 ranked public cloud company as of July 2024

Revenue Multiple (EV/Revenue)

11.1xmultiple

top-10

HubSpot and Adobe, #9-10 ranked public cloud companies as of July 2024

Revenue Multiple (EV/Revenue)

57xmultiple

peak

Bill.com in 2021 when it held #1 revenue multiple ranking

SentinelOne NTM Growth Rate

28%percent

SentinelOne growth deceleration from previous highest-growth status