onlycfo.io · 2023-04-26 · 1135d

SentinelOne and the 2021 SaaS Valuation Bubble: Growth vs. Profitability Trade-off in Market Reset

The article examines how SaaS valuation multiples have compressed from 2021 to 2023, using SentinelOne as a case study of a company that received a premium 74.7x revenue multiple when growth dominated investor priorities, but fell to 7.2x as the market shifted focus to profitability and free cash flow margins. It argues that companies must now pursue efficient, durable growth with credible paths to profitability rather than growth-at-all-costs, and that those taking corrective action early will be rewarded with improved relative valuation multiples.

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Metrics in this report

Free Cash Flow Margin

-10percent

median

Top 10 public SaaS companies (November 2021)

Free Cash Flow Margin

-47percent

SentinelOne current state

Free Cash Flow Margin

-27percent

SentinelOne forecast

Gross Margin

75percent

median

Top 10 public SaaS companies (November 2021)

Gross Revenue Retention (GRR)

97percent

SentinelOne at IPO

Net Revenue Retention (NRR)

124percent

SentinelOne at IPO

Operating Margin

-60percent

median

Top 10 public SaaS companies (November 2021)

Revenue Growth

116percent

SentinelOne at IPO (June 2021)

Revenue Growth

51percent

SentinelOne 12-month forward forecast

Revenue Valuation Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

60x

average

Top 10 SaaS companies at peak valuation (November 2021)

Revenue Valuation Multiple (EV/NTM Revenue)

11.5x

average

Top 10 SaaS companies post-market reset (2023)

Rule of 40 Score

40percent

minimum

Best-in-class SaaS companies

Rule of 40 Score

24percent

SentinelOne with forecast improvements