cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-04-05 · 790d

Clouded Judgement: Rubrik S-1 Benchmarking Analysis

This article analyzes Rubrik's S-1 filing, benchmarking its financial metrics against public SaaS companies across revenue growth, margins, and unit economics. Rubrik demonstrates strong NRR of 133% and 77% gross margins but faces challenges with negative FCF margins (-4%) and a Rule of 40 score of just 1% on reported revenue (47% on ARR basis), indicating a company in transition from perpetual licensing to SaaS subscription models.

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Metrics in this report

FCF Margin

-4percent

Rubrik LTM

Free Cash Flow Margin

-4percent

Rubrik LTM

Gross Margin

77percent

Rubrik LTM GAAP

Gross Margin

77percent

Rubrik LTM GAAP, cybersecurity SaaS

LTM ARR Growth

47percent

Rubrik; more accurate growth metric accounting for SaaS transition

LTM ARR Growth

47percent

Rubrik, pure SaaS subscription growth metric

LTM Revenue

628million USD

Rubrik as of S-1 filing (April 2024)

LTM Revenue

628millions USD

Rubrik, cybersecurity SaaS, LTM basis

LTM Revenue Growth

5percent

Rubrik reported; distorted by business model transition

LTM Revenue Growth

5percent

Rubrik, reported growth obscured by perpetual-to-SaaS transition

Net Revenue Retention

133percent

best-in-class

Rubrik; cohort-based expansion metric

Net Revenue Retention

133percent

best-in-class

Rubrik, cybersecurity SaaS

Operating Margin

-49percent

Rubrik LTM GAAP

Operating Margin

-49percent

Rubrik LTM GAAP

Rule of 40

1percent

Rubrik using reported revenue growth; 43% using ARR growth

Rule of 40 (ARR Growth Based)

43percent

Rubrik LTM, ARR growth + FCF margin

Rule of 40 (Revenue Growth Based)

1percent

Rubrik LTM, revenue growth + FCF margin

S&M Expense as Percent of Revenue

77percent

Rubrik LTM

S&M as % of Revenue

77percent

Rubrik LTM

TAM CAGR

13percent

average

Rubrik platform TAM 2024-2027

Total Addressable Market

36.3billions USD

Rubrik platform TAM, calendar year 2024

Total Addressable Market

52.9billions USD

Rubrik platform TAM, calendar year 2027 projection

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

36.3billion USD

Rubrik platform estimated TAM as of end of calendar year 2024

Total Addressable Market (TAM) 2027 Projection

52.9billion USD

Rubrik platform estimated TAM as of end of calendar year 2027 (13% CAGR)