onlycfo.io · 2024-06-02 · 732d

RIP Software? Worst Sentiment Ever | SaaS Valuation Crisis & AI Disruption Risk

Public software companies experienced their worst relative performance versus QQQ in 10 years due to missed revenue guidance, fading growth reacceleration hopes, and fear of AI commoditizing software margins. Despite heavy AI investments, companies are posting lower margins than expected given slow revenue growth, while PE exit paths are drying up due to increased leverage and disruption concerns. The article argues software is entering a mature, competitive phase where only companies that rapidly adapt to AI will survive, while others face valuation collapse.

7 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

Bessemer Cloud Index Performance

-50percent

current

Still down from 2021 peak; up 22.38% over past 5 years

MongoDB Stock Decline Post-Earnings

-24percent

observed

Q1 2024 earnings reaction

QQQ Index Performance

13percent

current

Change since 2021 peak; currently at all-time highs as of May 31, 2024

Revenue Guidance Miss

11.7percent

observed

Magnitude of next quarter guidance miss for one unnamed company

Salesforce Stock Decline Post-Earnings

-20percent

observed

Following first quarterly revenue miss in 18 years

UiPath Stock Decline Post-Earnings

-34percent

observed

Q1 2024 earnings reaction

Veeva Stock Decline Post-Earnings

-15percent

observed

Q1 2024 earnings reaction