RIP Software? Worst Sentiment Ever | SaaS Valuation Crisis & AI Disruption Risk
Public software companies experienced their worst relative performance versus QQQ in 10 years due to missed revenue guidance, fading growth reacceleration hopes, and fear of AI commoditizing software margins. Despite heavy AI investments, companies are posting lower margins than expected given slow revenue growth, while PE exit paths are drying up due to increased leverage and disruption concerns. The article argues software is entering a mature, competitive phase where only companies that rapidly adapt to AI will survive, while others face valuation collapse.
Metrics in this report
-50percent
current
Still down from 2021 peak; up 22.38% over past 5 years
-24percent
observed
Q1 2024 earnings reaction
13percent
current
Change since 2021 peak; currently at all-time highs as of May 31, 2024
11.7percent
observed
Magnitude of next quarter guidance miss for one unnamed company
-20percent
observed
Following first quarterly revenue miss in 18 years
-34percent
observed
Q1 2024 earnings reaction
-15percent
observed
Q1 2024 earnings reaction