      cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2020-07-07
      · 2158d
    

Clouded Judgement: nCino IPO Valuation Analysis at $22-24 Price Range

nCino's IPO pricing at $22-24 per share implies a $2.2B valuation with a 9.5x forward revenue multiple (assuming 35% growth), which is discounted relative to both median SaaS multiples (13.5x) and high-growth SaaS comparables (24.2x). The article provides detailed IPO mechanics including share count, dilution, and enterprise value calculations, positioning nCino as a financial services vertical software company with 50% LTM growth but decelerating forward expectations.

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Metrics in this report

Financial Services Vertical Software Forward EV/Revenue Multiple

11.7x

median

Financial services vertical software companies (AppFolio, BlackLine, Temenos, etc.)

High-Growth SaaS Forward EV/Revenue Multiple

24.2x

median

High-growth public SaaS companies, Jun-19 to Jun-20

IPO Primary Shares Dilution

8percent

typical

nCino IPO at midpoint pricing

Low-Growth SaaS Forward EV/Revenue Multiple

9.0x

median

Low-growth public SaaS companies, Jun-19 to Jun-20

Median SaaS Forward EV/Revenue Multiple

13.5x

median

All public SaaS companies, Jan-15 to Jan-20

Mid-Growth SaaS Forward EV/Revenue Multiple

14.8x

median

Mid-growth public SaaS companies, Jun-19 to Jun-20

SaaS Median LTM Growth Rate

34percent

median

Entire public SaaS universe

nCino LTM Revenue

153million

actual

nCino trailing twelve months prior to IPO

nCino Last Twelve Months Revenue Growth

50percent

actual

nCino as of IPO filing