IPOs Are Terrible Investments! Retail Investor Returns Analysis & Lockup Period Volatility

The article analyzes historical IPO performance for retail investors, revealing that 64% of software IPOs since 2018 underperformed their day-1 closing price after 6 months, with a median return of -8% versus +6% for QQQ. Key factors include ultra-thin initial float (median 12% for software IPOs) due to lockup periods, institutional investor capture of IPO pops, and extreme long-term outcome dispersion, where only 18 of 55 companies show positive returns from IPO day-1 close through today.