onlycfo.io · 2023-10-23 · 955d

Drivers of Valuation: DCF Models vs. Revenue Multiples in SaaS

The article contrasts DCF valuation models with revenue multiple approaches for software companies, arguing that while DCF is theoretically superior, both methods require understanding the same underlying drivers of long-term cash generation. The author analyzes year-over-year revenue multiple shifts for public SaaS companies to illustrate how investor expectations about future growth and profitability drive valuation changes, using ZoomInfo and C3 as case studies of multiple compression and expansion.

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Metrics in this report

Free Cash Flow Margin Rank (ZoomInfo)

5rank

best-in-class

ZoomInfo ranked #5 in FCF margins among public software companies despite multiple compression

NTM Revenue Multiple (C3 Metals)

7.1xmultiple

current

Public SaaS companies; C3 ranked 27th in October 2023, up 51 spots year-over-year

NTM Revenue Multiple (C3 Metals)

1.8xmultiple

historical

C3 revenue multiple in October 2022; one of lowest software revenue multiples at that time

NTM Revenue Multiple (Palantir)

14.1xmultiple

current

Public SaaS companies; Palantir ranked 4th in October 2023, up 26 spots year-over-year

NTM Revenue Multiple (Shopify)

8.4xmultiple

current

Public SaaS companies; Shopify ranked 20th in October 2023, up 38 spots year-over-year

NTM Revenue Multiple (ZoomInfo)

6.0xmultiple

current

Public SaaS companies; ZoomInfo ranked 36th in October 2023, down 34 spots year-over-year from 2nd place

Revenue Growth (C3 Metals)

3%percent

actual

C3 actual revenue growth in October 2022; consensus had expected only 1%

Revenue Growth (C3 Metals)

17%percent

consensus

C3 consensus expectations for next 12 months revenue growth

Revenue Growth (ZoomInfo)

57%percent

historical

ZoomInfo 2022 annual revenue growth

Revenue Growth (ZoomInfo)

29%percent

historical

ZoomInfo 2023 year-to-date revenue growth

Revenue Growth (ZoomInfo)

5%percent

consensus

ZoomInfo consensus estimates for next 12 months