cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-08-02 · 1037d

Clouded Judgement: IPO Process Overview & Pricing Mechanics

This article provides a comprehensive breakdown of the IPO process for SaaS companies, detailing six stages from investment bank selection through day-one trading, with particular focus on how IPO pricing ranges are set relative to comparable companies and why post-IPO pops occur. The analysis includes empirical data from 45 SaaS IPOs since 2018, revealing that most IPOs are priced at a discount to comparable public companies and that institutional investors capture disproportionate value through day-one gains. The author argues the current IPO process is inefficient and disadvantages companies and retail investors, while acknowledging the structural constraints (low float, lockup periods) that make perfect pricing difficult.

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Metrics in this report

Float as Percentage of Total Shares Outstanding

12percent

typical

SaaS IPOs; intentionally kept low to limit supply and manage volatility

IPO Day One Pop

25percent

median

45 SaaS IPOs from 2018 onwards

IPO Lockup Period

180days

standard

Typical lockup period preventing existing shareholders from selling (6 months)

IPO Price Range Discount to Comparable Companies

16percent

median

SaaS IPOs with raised price ranges (69% of analyzed deals, n=31)

Initial IPO Price Range Discount to Comps

42percent

maximum

Zoom IPO; highest discount observed in 45-IPO dataset

Initial IPO Price Range Premium to Comps

5percent

maximum

Coupa IPO; limited instances of premium pricing at initial range

Price Appreciation from IPO to Lockup Expiration (6 months)

48percent

average

45 SaaS IPOs (note: median 34% due to 2021 COVID-bubble skew)