cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-09-05 · 272d

Clouded Judgement: Second Mover Advantage in AI and SaaS

The article argues that second-mover advantage is often underestimated in rapidly evolving AI and SaaS markets, where first movers can be handicapped by outdated infrastructure and high cost structures while second movers benefit from learned lessons, better pricing, and educated buyers. The author provides comprehensive SaaS benchmarking data showing median metrics across public cloud companies including valuation multiples, growth rates, margins, and unit economics.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

31months

median

Public SaaS companies (gross margin adjusted)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

4.8x

median

All public SaaS companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

22.7x

median

High-growth SaaS (>25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

6.9x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

3.9x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A as % of Revenue

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Dollar Retention

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-3percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D as % of Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Sales & Marketing as % of Revenue

38percent

median

Public SaaS companies