cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-09-19 · 258d

Clouded Judgement: Managing AI as Living Systems vs. Static Software

The article argues that AI products require fundamentally different operational and architectural approaches than traditional deterministic software, treating them as living systems with continuous evolution rather than stable releases. The author emphasizes that successful AI product companies must build infrastructure for observability, continuous evaluation, controlled rollouts, and customer communication to manage model drift and probabilistic behavior. A secondary section provides SaaS valuation multiples analysis and M&A landscape observations across the software industry.

15 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

32months

median

Public SaaS companies (gross profit-adjusted)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.1multiple

median

Overall public SaaS companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

24.2multiple

median

Top 10 public SaaS companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

28.4multiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

8.8multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

4.1multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A as % of Revenue

15percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Retention Rate

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-2percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D as % of Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies

S&M as % of Revenue

37percent

median

Public SaaS companies