cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2020-08-07 · 2127d

Clouded Judgement

SaaS company earnings in August 2020 revealed that despite massive revenue beats, stock prices declined or barely moved, indicating that inflated multiples and consensus estimate misses had already priced in expected growth. The article analyzes valuation multiples, operating metrics, and market dynamics across a cohort of high-growth SaaS companies, showing median EV/NTM revenue of 38.8x and revealing the disconnect between earnings performance and stock reaction.

12 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

29months

median

SaaS cohort August 2020

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (High Growth >30%)

33.1xmultiple

median

SaaS companies with >30% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Low Growth <15%)

8.6xmultiple

median

SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Mid Growth 15-30%)

16.3xmultiple

median

SaaS companies with 15-30% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Overall Median)

14.0xmultiple

median

Broad SaaS cohort as of August 2020

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Top 10)

38.8xmultiple

average

Top 10 highest-valued SaaS companies

Free Cash Flow Margin

5%percent

median

SaaS cohort August 2020

Gross Margin

73%percent

median

SaaS cohort August 2020

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

30%percent

median

SaaS cohort August 2020

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

18%percent

median

SaaS cohort August 2020

Net Revenue Retention

117%percent

median

SaaS cohort August 2020

Operating Margin

-15%percent

median

SaaS cohort August 2020