cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-08-29 · 279d

Clouded Judgement: The AI Innovator's Dilemma

The article analyzes how compute scarcity has become the primary organizational constraint for large AI companies, forcing difficult resource allocation decisions between protecting profitable existing products and pursuing emerging growth vectors. This mirrors the classic innovator's dilemma but with hardware constraints, creating structural advantages for focused startups that can operate efficiently across cloud providers without internal resource battles.

15 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

34months

median

Public SaaS companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.1multiple

median

Public SaaS companies overall

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

29.9multiple

median

Top 5 public SaaS companies by market cap

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

30.5multiple

median

High-growth SaaS companies (>25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

7.1multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS companies (15-25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

4.0multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS companies (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A as % of Revenue

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Dollar Retention

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-4percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D as % of Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies

S&M as % of Revenue

38percent

median

Public SaaS companies