cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2020-08-14 · 2120d

Clouded Judgement

SaaS revenue multiples compressed from 15x to 13x as Q2 earnings revealed that the anticipated COVID-driven growth boost failed to materialize, with most companies experiencing revenue deceleration despite accelerating digital transformation. The article analyzes whether Q3 will see a rebound from pushed-out deals or if multiples will regress toward historical 5-10x norms. Key metrics show median SaaS companies trading at 12.9x NTM revenue with 19% median NTM growth, 73% gross margins, and 117% net retention.

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Metrics in this report

High-Growth SaaS Revenue Multiple (NTM)

27.2x

median

SaaS companies with >30% projected NTM growth

Low-Growth SaaS Revenue Multiple (NTM)

8.2x

median

SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth

Mid-Growth SaaS Revenue Multiple (NTM)

15.5x

median

SaaS companies with 15-30% projected NTM growth

SaaS CAC Payback Period

29months

median

Median across public SaaS cohort

SaaS Gross Margin

73percent

median

Median across public SaaS cohort

SaaS LTM Growth Rate

30percent

median

Median across public SaaS cohort

SaaS NTM Growth Rate

19percent

median

Median across public SaaS cohort

SaaS Net Revenue Retention

117percent

median

Median across public SaaS cohort

SaaS Operating Margin

-15percent

median

Median across public SaaS cohort

SaaS Revenue Multiple (NTM)

13.0x

median

Public SaaS companies, August 2020

SaaS Revenue Multiple (NTM)

15.0x

median

Public SaaS companies, one month prior to August 2020

SaaS Revenue Multiple (NTM)

5-10x

historical

Long-term SaaS valuation range