cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-07-05 · 699d

Clouded Judgement: Declining Growth in Public SaaS

SaaS median NTM growth rates have declined ~50% over two years from ~25% to ~12%, with zero companies now projected to grow >30% compared to eight a year ago. Revenue multiples remain the primary valuation framework for unprofitable software companies, with significant variation based on growth buckets (10.7x for high growth vs. 3.8x for low growth). Operating metrics reveal a median 110% net retention, 75% gross margin, and 53-month CAC payback, suggesting growing valuation pressure as growth deceleration continues.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

53months

median

Public software companies

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

5.2multiple

median

Overall public software industry

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

16.3multiple

median

Top 5 valued public software companies

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - High Growth Bucket

10.7multiple

median

Companies with projected NTM growth >27%

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - Low Growth Bucket

3.8multiple

median

Companies with projected NTM growth <15%

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - Mid Growth Bucket

7.9multiple

median

Companies with projected NTM growth 15%-27%

FCF Margin

14percent

median

Public software companies with positive FCF

G&A Spend

15percent of revenue

median

Public software companies

Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public software companies

LTM Growth Rate

17percent

median

Public software companies

NTM Growth Rate

12percent

median

Public software companies tracked in basket, July 2024

Net Revenue Retention

110percent

median

Public software companies

Operating Margin

-10percent

median

Public software companies

R&D Spend

25percent of revenue

median

Public software companies

Sales & Marketing Spend

40percent of revenue

median

Public software companies