      cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2020-07-31
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Clouded Judgement

Earnings season analysis reveals cloud/SaaS companies are beating consensus estimates due to lowered estimate revisions rather than exceptional operational performance. The article benchmarks SaaS valuation multiples, operating metrics, and growth profiles across a cohort of high-growth companies, with particular focus on the outsized valuations and growth rates of companies like Shopify, Datadog, and Bill.com.

15 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

28months

median

Broader SaaS cohort (Q2 2020)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

36.3x

median

Top 10 SaaS companies by valuation (Q2 2020)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (High Growth >30%)

29.9x

median

SaaS companies with >30% NTM growth (Q2 2020)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Low Growth <15%)

8.3x

median

SaaS companies with <15% NTM growth (Q2 2020)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Mid Growth 15-30%)

16.0x

median

SaaS companies with 15-30% NTM growth (Q2 2020)

Free Cash Flow Margin

10percent

median

Top 10 SaaS companies by valuation (Q2 2020)

Gross Margin

71percent

median

Top 10 SaaS companies by valuation (Q2 2020)

Median LTM Growth Rate

31percent

median

SaaS cohort (Q2 2020)

Median NTM Growth Rate

18percent

median

SaaS cohort (Q2 2020)

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

42percent

median

Top 10 SaaS companies by valuation (Q2 2020)

Net Revenue Retention

117percent

median

Broader SaaS cohort (Q2 2020)

Operating Margin

-12percent

median

Top 10 SaaS companies by valuation (Q2 2020)

Overall SaaS Multiple Median

13.7x

median

Broader SaaS market (Q2 2020)

SaaS Multiple 1-Year Trailing Average

10.6x

average

Broader SaaS market (Q2 2020)

SaaS Multiple 3-Month Trailing Average

12.4x

average

Broader SaaS market (Q2 2020)