Clouded Judgement: Why TAMs Lie During Platform Shifts

Traditional TAM analysis fails during platform shifts (cloud, mobile, AI) because it assumes static markets and buyer behavior, when in reality new platforms create entirely new pain points, expand access to tools, and unlock new user categories that weren't in the original TAM. The author argues that the most interesting companies don't just optimize within existing markets—they redefine them, with AI code editors illustrating how productivity gains and new user adoption can expand addressable markets 10-100x beyond initial projections.