cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-07-21 · 1049d

Clouded Judgement: Are Software Companies Bad Businesses?

The article challenges the claim that software companies don't generate free cash flow, presenting data showing a median 5% FCF margin across 80 tracked companies and arguing that negative FCF in growth mode is a necessary investment, not a business model flaw. It distinguishes between growth mode and maturity mode for software companies, establishes that terminal FCF margins of ~30% are achievable at ~10% growth, and contends that many overvalued software companies trading above 2x revenue will never reach these margins and face severe re-rating risk.

14 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

Annual Dilution

1percent

target

Gold standard for share dilution across all companies

Box FCF per Share Trading Multiple

15multiple

best-in-class

Box Inc. in maturity mode (10% growth, 30% FCF margin)

Free Cash Flow Margin

5percent

median

80 tracked software companies, LTM basis

Free Cash Flow Margin

13percent

median

Q1 2023, most recent quarter in dataset

High Growth EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

9.9multiple

median

Companies with >30% projected NTM growth

Median CAC Payback

57months

median

Public SaaS companies in basket

Median G&A as % of Revenue

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies in basket

Median Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public SaaS companies in basket

Median NTM Growth Rate

15percent

median

Public SaaS companies in basket

Median Net Retention Rate

115percent

median

Public SaaS companies in basket

Median Operating Margin

-20percent

median

Public SaaS companies in basket

Median R&D as % of Revenue

27percent

median

Public SaaS companies in basket

Median S&M as % of Revenue

46percent

median

Public SaaS companies in basket

Terminal FCF Margin

30percent

target

Software companies in maturity mode at 10% revenue growth