Clouded Judgement: Are Software Companies Bad Businesses?
The article challenges the claim that software companies don't generate free cash flow, presenting data showing a median 5% FCF margin across 80 tracked companies and arguing that negative FCF in growth mode is a necessary investment, not a business model flaw. It distinguishes between growth mode and maturity mode for software companies, establishes that terminal FCF margins of ~30% are achievable at ~10% growth, and contends that many overvalued software companies trading above 2x revenue will never reach these margins and face severe re-rating risk.
Metrics in this report
1percent
target
Gold standard for share dilution across all companies
15multiple
best-in-class
Box Inc. in maturity mode (10% growth, 30% FCF margin)
5percent
median
80 tracked software companies, LTM basis
13percent
median
Q1 2023, most recent quarter in dataset
9.9multiple
median
Companies with >30% projected NTM growth
57months
median
Public SaaS companies in basket
18percent
median
Public SaaS companies in basket
75percent
median
Public SaaS companies in basket
15percent
median
Public SaaS companies in basket
115percent
median
Public SaaS companies in basket
-20percent
median
Public SaaS companies in basket
27percent
median
Public SaaS companies in basket
46percent
median
Public SaaS companies in basket
30percent
target
Software companies in maturity mode at 10% revenue growth