cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-07-18 · 321d

Clouded Judgement: The Return of the Point Solution

The author argues that the next generation of dominant software platforms will emerge from point solutions that execute ruthlessly in niche markets before expanding, citing Datadog as a historical example and drawing parallels to the current AI investing era. The post includes detailed SaaS valuation multiples, operating metrics, and benchmarks for public cloud software companies, demonstrating that high-growth companies command 21.4x NTM revenue multiples versus 4.1x for low-growth peers.

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Metrics in this report

10-Year EV / NTM Revenue Multiple Change

4.5percent

average annual

Public SaaS companies

CAC Payback Period

72months

median

Public SaaS companies

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

5.4multiple

median

All public SaaS companies

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

22.5multiple

median

Top 5 SaaS companies by valuation

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

21.4multiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>25% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

8.4multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-25% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.1multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A Expense

16percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Growth Rate

11percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Dollar Retention

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-4percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D Expense

24percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

S&M Expense

38percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies