cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-06-09 · 1091d

Clouded Judgement: Q1 2023 Cloud Software Consumption Trends

Analysis of Q1 2023 earnings from six major cloud software consumption-driven companies (Mongo, Azure, Datadog, Confluent, AWS, Snowflake) reveals consumption headwinds have stabilized but not reversed, with mixed guidance changes and divergent trends between enterprise and SMB segments. MongoDB and Azure showed relative strength while AWS and Snowflake faced intensifying headwinds, particularly from larger customers reducing workloads and optimization efforts. SaaS valuations remain driven by revenue multiples with high-growth companies trading at 8.5x NTM revenue while low-growth companies trade at 3.3x, reflecting persistent growth-to-valuation correlation despite profitability challenges.

16 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

AWS Growth in April

11percent

actual

Compared to 16% growth in Q1 2023

Azure Growth Guidance

26-28percent

target

Q2 2023 guidance with 1% from AI services

CAC Payback Period

57months

median

Public SaaS companies analyzed in cohort

Free Cash Flow Margin

3percent

median

Public SaaS companies analyzed in cohort

G&A as % of Revenue

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies analyzed in cohort

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies analyzed in cohort

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

15percent

median

Public SaaS companies analyzed in cohort

Net Revenue Retention

115percent

median

Public SaaS companies analyzed in cohort

Operating Margin

-21percent

median

Public SaaS companies analyzed in cohort

Overall SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.7multiple

median

Broad SaaS cohort analyzed

R&D as % of Revenue

27percent

median

Public SaaS companies analyzed in cohort

SaaS Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public SaaS companies analyzed in cohort

Sales & Marketing as % of Revenue

46percent

median

Public SaaS companies analyzed in cohort

Snowflake Full Year Revenue Growth

34percent

target

Revised downward from prior guidance of 40% YoY

Snowflake Query Growth

57percent

actual

YoY growth in Q1 2023; outpacing 50% revenue growth

Top 5 SaaS Companies EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

15.6multiple

median

Highest valued SaaS companies by market cap