Clouded Judgement: How to Spot ERR (Experimental Run Rate Revenue)

The article introduces ERR (Experimental Run Rate Revenue) as a distinct category from ARR that represents less predictable, higher-risk revenue streams often driven by AI pilots, undefined ROI initiatives, and temporary adoption. The author provides diagnostic signals across behavioral, organizational, technical, and commercial dimensions to help founders differentiate between sticky recurring revenue and ephemeral experimental revenue. Understanding this mix is critical for accurate operational planning, hiring decisions, spending forecasts, and fundraising strategy.