cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-06-27 · 342d

Clouded Judgement: New Rules For a New Game

The article argues that traditional SaaS startup playbooks—emphasizing sequential spending, milestone-based funding, and careful planning—are now outdated in greenfield markets where speed and iteration matter more than polish. It presents current SaaS valuation multiples and operating metrics showing that companies must move faster and in parallel across GTM, product, and hiring to avoid being leapfrogged by faster competitors, fundamentally reshaping how successful founders and investors approach startup scaling.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

72months

median

Public SaaS companies on gross margin basis

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.3x

median

All public SaaS companies analyzed

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

24.3x

median

Top 5 public SaaS companies by market cap

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

21.8x

median

High-growth SaaS companies (>25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

8.5x

median

Mid-growth SaaS companies (15-25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

4.1x

median

Low-growth SaaS companies (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A Spend as % of Revenue

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Growth Rate

11percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Retention Rate

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-4percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D Spend as % of Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies

S&M Spend as % of Revenue

38percent

median

Public SaaS companies