Clouded Judgement: Growth-Adjusted Software Multiples and Valuation Reset

This article analyzes current SaaS valuation multiples (6.0x NTM revenue) relative to historical averages and macro conditions, arguing that while multiples appear depressed versus interest rates and growth expectations, growth-adjusted multiples are at all-time highs when divided by consensus growth rates. The author contends that the market is pricing in near-term tailwinds from potential growth acceleration and rate declines, though significant uncertainty remains about whether current multiples represent fair value or an AI-driven bubble.