cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-06-14 · 720d

Clouded Judgement: Is Seat-Based Pricing Dead?

The article argues that AI will fundamentally disrupt SaaS seat-based pricing models by enabling customers to do "more with less" (people), forcing application software companies to transition toward consumption-based pricing similar to infrastructure vendors. The author predicts that leading application software companies will increasingly resemble database platforms, with AI agents consuming APIs and data structures rather than UIs, and that data infrastructure companies will become the primary application providers in an AI-driven future.

18 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

10-Year Treasury Yield

4.25percent

Market rate as of June 14, 2024 (lowest since March)

CAC Payback Period

53months

median

All public SaaS companies

Free Cash Flow Margin

14percent

median

All public SaaS companies

G&A Spend

15percent of revenue

median

All public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

76percent

median

All public SaaS companies

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

17percent

median

All public SaaS companies

May Core CPI YoY

3.4percent

U.S. inflation ex-food and energy, May 2024 vs expectations of 3.5%

May YoY CPI

3.3percent

U.S. inflation, May 2024 vs expectations of 3.4%

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

12percent

median

All public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

110percent

median

All public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

10percent

median

All public SaaS companies

R&D Spend

25percent of revenue

median

All public SaaS companies

SaaS Valuation Multiple (EV / NTM Revenue)

5.1x

median

All public SaaS companies measured as of June 2024

SaaS Valuation Multiple (High Growth Cohort)

7.9x

median

SaaS companies with projected NTM growth > 27%

SaaS Valuation Multiple (Low Growth Cohort)

3.5x

median

SaaS companies with projected NTM growth < 15%

SaaS Valuation Multiple (Mid Growth Cohort)

7.9x

median

SaaS companies with projected NTM growth 15-27%

Sales & Marketing Spend

40percent of revenue

median

All public SaaS companies

Top 5 SaaS Valuation Multiple

14.1x

median

Top 5 public SaaS companies by market cap