cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-06-13 · 356d

Clouded Judgement: The Battle for Data Ownership in SaaS

Slack's restrictive API changes blocking customer data access and third-party indexing signal a broader trend of SaaS incumbents locking down data to protect against AI disruption and maintain competitive moats. The article examines whether closed ecosystems with proprietary agents will prevail over open, composable data platforms—a critical control battle as enterprise software rewires for AI. Public SaaS market valuations remain compressed at median 5.4x NTM revenue, with top-tier growth companies trading at 20-25x multiples despite negative operating margins.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

72months

median

Public SaaS companies at scale

Core CPI

2.8percent

YoY

U.S. inflation as of June 2025

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.4multiple

median

Overall public SaaS market

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

23.1multiple

median

Top 5 public SaaS companies by valuation

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

20.0multiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

8.6multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-25% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

3.9multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies at scale

G&A as % of Revenue

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies at scale

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies at scale

Headline CPI

2.4percent

YoY

U.S. inflation as of June 2025

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies at scale

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

11percent

median

Public SaaS companies at scale

Net Revenue Retention (NRR)

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies at scale

Operating Margin

-4percent

median

Public SaaS companies at scale

R&D as % of Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies at scale

S&M as % of Revenue

38percent

median

Public SaaS companies at scale