cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2025-05-30 · 370d

Clouded Judgement: Moats in the Age of AI

The article argues that traditional software moats are increasingly time-bound and temporary, with AI compression reducing competitive advantages from 6-12 months to 2-3 weeks, making execution speed the only sustainable competitive edge. It provides comprehensive SaaS benchmarking data across 10+ public companies, showing median metrics including 11% NTM growth, 76% gross margins, 108% net retention, and 18% FCF margins, with valuation multiples ranging from 5.6x to 23.2x depending on growth rates.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

45months

median

Public SaaS companies overall

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

5.6multiple

median

Overall public SaaS market

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

20.6multiple

median

High-growth SaaS (>25% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

9.2multiple

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-25% NTM growth)

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.1multiple

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

18percent

median

Public SaaS companies overall

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies overall

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

14percent

median

Public SaaS companies overall

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

11percent

median

Public SaaS companies overall

Net Dollar Retention

108percent

median

Public SaaS companies overall

Operating Margin

-4percent

median

Public SaaS companies overall

R&D as % of Revenue

24percent

median

Public SaaS companies overall

S&M as % of Revenue

38percent

median

Public SaaS companies overall

Top 10 SaaS Companies Average EV / NTM Revenue

22.2multiple

average

Top 10 highest-valued SaaS companies by multiple

Top 10 SaaS Companies Median EV / NTM Revenue

15.4multiple

median

Top 10 highest-valued SaaS companies by multiple