cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-05-12 · 1119d

Clouded Judgement: 2023 Full Year Guidance Update & SaaS Valuation Analysis

Analysis of Q1 2023 cloud software earnings showing 91% beat rates with 53% guiding above consensus, indicating macro stabilization without improvement. The article examines full-year guidance de-risking, 2024 forecast uncertainty, and detailed valuation multiples for top-performing SaaS companies, revealing median EV/NTM revenue of 5.4x overall and 12.0x for top performers with median 75% gross margins but negative operating margins.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

30months

median

Public SaaS companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.4x

median

Overall SaaS software universe

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

12.0x

median

Top 5 high-growth SaaS companies

Earnings Beat Rate

91percent

Q1 2023 cloud software companies reporting earnings

FCF Margin

2percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A Expense

18percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Guidance Raise Rate

53percent

Q1 2023 companies providing Q2 guidance above consensus

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

26percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

116percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-21percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D Expense

28percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Sales & Marketing Expense

47percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies