Clouded Judgement: Hype Rounds vs Fundamental Rounds + Macro Update
The article contrasts 'hype rounds' (valuation-based on potential) with 'fundamental rounds' (valuation-based on financial metrics), arguing that late-stage startups raising at disconnected valuations face exponentially greater execution risk and dilution challenges to reach public market multiples. The piece also updates macro conditions, noting the 10Y Treasury yield rising from 3.8% to 4.4% YTD amid sticky inflation and expectations for fewer Fed rate cuts, pressuring software valuations.
Metrics in this report
4.4percent
current
As of April 5, 2024 (up from 3.8% at start of 2024)
39months
median
Public SaaS companies
11percent
median
Public SaaS companies
16percent
median
Public SaaS companies
75percent
median
Public SaaS companies
13percent
median
Public SaaS companies
6.1multiple
median
Current cohort of public SaaS companies (Oct-23)
110percent
median
Public SaaS companies
-11percent
median
Public SaaS companies
25percent
median
Public SaaS companies
41percent
median
Public SaaS companies
6-12multiple
target
Public software companies at exit (normalized market multiple)
17.4multiple
median
Top 5 highest-valued SaaS companies by EV/NTM Revenue