cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-04-05 · 790d

Clouded Judgement: Hype Rounds vs Fundamental Rounds + Macro Update

The article contrasts 'hype rounds' (valuation-based on potential) with 'fundamental rounds' (valuation-based on financial metrics), arguing that late-stage startups raising at disconnected valuations face exponentially greater execution risk and dilution challenges to reach public market multiples. The piece also updates macro conditions, noting the 10Y Treasury yield rising from 3.8% to 4.4% YTD amid sticky inflation and expectations for fewer Fed rate cuts, pressuring software valuations.

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Metrics in this report

10-Year Treasury Yield

4.4percent

current

As of April 5, 2024 (up from 3.8% at start of 2024)

CAC Payback Period

39months

median

Public SaaS companies

Free Cash Flow Margin

11percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A as % of Revenue

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Median NTM Growth Rate

13percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Median SaaS Valuation Multiple (NTM Revenue)

6.1multiple

median

Current cohort of public SaaS companies (Oct-23)

Net Revenue Retention

110percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-11percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D as % of Revenue

25percent

median

Public SaaS companies

S&M as % of Revenue

41percent

median

Public SaaS companies

SaaS Valuation Multiple (NTM Revenue)

6-12multiple

target

Public software companies at exit (normalized market multiple)

Top 5 SaaS Valuation Multiple (NTM Revenue)

17.4multiple

median

Top 5 highest-valued SaaS companies by EV/NTM Revenue