Clouded Judgement: Hyperscaler Q1 Reports & The AWS April Growth Cliff
AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud reported Q1 2023 results showing divergent trajectories: Azure maintained 31% growth with improving tone suggesting optimization headwinds may be abating, while AWS reported 16% growth but immediately revealed a severe April slowdown to 11%, indicating consumption trend deterioration persists. The article argues that AWS's guidance shock undermines the narrative of cloud growth re-acceleration and pushes potential market bottom to 2024, with broader implications for SaaS valuations and forecast reliability.
Metrics in this report
11%percent
actual
April 2023 (first month of Q2)
16%percent
actual
Q1 2023, constant currency
31%percent
actual
Q1 2023, constant currency
6percentage points
actual
Full year 2023 guidance cut from 37% to 31%
28%percent
actual
Q1 2023, reported currency
7.8xmultiple
median
SaaS companies with >30% projected NTM growth
3.2xmultiple
median
SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth
5.9xmultiple
median
SaaS companies with 15-30% projected NTM growth
30months
median
Public SaaS companies tracked in article
5.1xmultiple
median
Overall public SaaS universe
2%percent
median
Public SaaS companies tracked in article
75%percent
median
Public SaaS companies tracked in article
16%percent
median
Public SaaS companies tracked in article
116%percent
median
Public SaaS companies tracked in article
-21%percent
median
Public SaaS companies tracked in article