cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2023-04-28 · 1133d

Clouded Judgement: Hyperscaler Q1 Reports & The AWS April Growth Cliff

AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud reported Q1 2023 results showing divergent trajectories: Azure maintained 31% growth with improving tone suggesting optimization headwinds may be abating, while AWS reported 16% growth but immediately revealed a severe April slowdown to 11%, indicating consumption trend deterioration persists. The article argues that AWS's guidance shock undermines the narrative of cloud growth re-acceleration and pushes potential market bottom to 2024, with broader implications for SaaS valuations and forecast reliability.

15 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

AWS April Revenue Growth YoY

11%percent

actual

April 2023 (first month of Q2)

AWS Revenue Growth YoY

16%percent

actual

Q1 2023, constant currency

Azure Revenue Growth YoY

31%percent

actual

Q1 2023, constant currency

Cloudflare Annual Growth Guidance Reduction

6percentage points

actual

Full year 2023 guidance cut from 37% to 31%

Google Cloud Revenue Growth YoY

28%percent

actual

Q1 2023, reported currency

High Growth SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

7.8xmultiple

median

SaaS companies with >30% projected NTM growth

Low Growth SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

3.2xmultiple

median

SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth

Mid Growth SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.9xmultiple

median

SaaS companies with 15-30% projected NTM growth

SaaS Median CAC Payback

30months

median

Public SaaS companies tracked in article

SaaS Median EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

5.1xmultiple

median

Overall public SaaS universe

SaaS Median FCF Margin

2%percent

median

Public SaaS companies tracked in article

SaaS Median Gross Margin

75%percent

median

Public SaaS companies tracked in article

SaaS Median NTM Revenue Growth

16%percent

median

Public SaaS companies tracked in article

SaaS Median Net Revenue Retention

116%percent

median

Public SaaS companies tracked in article

SaaS Median Operating Margin

-21%percent

median

Public SaaS companies tracked in article