Clouded Judgement: Hyperscaler Q1 2023 Preview & SaaS Valuation Multiple Analysis
The article analyzes expected Q1 2023 cloud infrastructure deceleration across AWS, Azure, and GCP, noting Morgan Stanley's warning of intensifying cloud optimization headwinds and a potential peak pressure point before 2024 reacceleration. It benchmarks current SaaS valuation multiples against historical norms and growth rates, showing median EV/NTM revenue of 5.6x overall but 11.5x for top 10 SaaS companies, while examining the correlation between revenue growth and valuation multiples.
Metrics in this report
20percent
Q4 2022
32percent
Q1 2021
20percent
Q4 2022
14-16percent
January 2023 (mid-teens)
30-31percent
Q1 2023 guidance
38percent
Q4 2022
38percent
Q4 2022
30-31percent
Q1 2023 guidance
30months
median
Public SaaS companies
30months
median
SaaS companies in benchmark sample
5.6x
median
Overall SaaS market as of April 2023
11.5x
median
Top 10 SaaS companies by market cap as of April 2023
8.1x
median
High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth)
6.4x
median
Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth)
3.3x
median
Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)
5.6x
median
Overall public SaaS cohort
11.5x
median
Top 10 high-growth SaaS companies
8.1x
median
High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth)
6.4x
median
Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth)
3.3x
median
Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)
2percent
median
SaaS companies in benchmark sample
2percent
median
Public SaaS companies
75percent
median
Public SaaS companies
75percent
median
SaaS companies in benchmark sample
16percent
median
Public SaaS companies
16percent
median
SaaS companies in benchmark sample
116percent
median
Public SaaS companies
116percent
median
SaaS companies in benchmark sample
-21percent
median
Public SaaS companies
-21percent
median
SaaS companies in benchmark sample
47percent
median
Public SaaS companies
47percent
median
SaaS companies in benchmark sample