cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2022-04-15 · 1511d

Clouded Judgement

The article analyzes macro inflation trends and their implications for software valuations, arguing that despite Q1 2022 tech selloffs, public SaaS companies remain attractive investments given their deflationary product offerings and strong unit economics. The author presents a bottoms-up CPI analysis suggesting inflation may have peaked, and benchmarks current SaaS trading multiples against private equity acquisition prices, demonstrating public market software opportunities at compressed valuations relative to growth fundamentals.

18 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

23months

median

Public SaaS companies

Core CPI MoM Growth

0.3percent

actual

March 2022

Core CPI YoY Growth

6.5percent

actual

March 2022

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (High Growth)

11.5x

median

SaaS companies with >30% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Low Growth)

4.0x

median

SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Mid Growth)

8.6x

median

SaaS companies with 15-30% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Overall)

8.8x

median

Public SaaS companies overall

FCF Margin

3percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A Spend

20percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

74percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Revenue Growth

34percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth

26percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

120percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-23percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Private Equity SaaS Acquisition Multiple

12x forward revenue

benchmark

Thoma Bravo Anaplan acquisition (March 2022)

R&D Spend

26percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

S&M Spend

45percent of revenue

median

Public SaaS companies

Used Vehicle Price Change

-3.8percent

actual

Month-over-month, March 2022