Clouded Judgement
The article analyzes macro inflation trends and their implications for software valuations, arguing that despite Q1 2022 tech selloffs, public SaaS companies remain attractive investments given their deflationary product offerings and strong unit economics. The author presents a bottoms-up CPI analysis suggesting inflation may have peaked, and benchmarks current SaaS trading multiples against private equity acquisition prices, demonstrating public market software opportunities at compressed valuations relative to growth fundamentals.
Metrics in this report
23months
median
Public SaaS companies
0.3percent
actual
March 2022
6.5percent
actual
March 2022
11.5x
median
SaaS companies with >30% projected NTM growth
4.0x
median
SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth
8.6x
median
SaaS companies with 15-30% projected NTM growth
8.8x
median
Public SaaS companies overall
3percent
median
Public SaaS companies
20percent of revenue
median
Public SaaS companies
74percent
median
Public SaaS companies
34percent
median
Public SaaS companies
26percent
median
Public SaaS companies
120percent
median
Public SaaS companies
-23percent
median
Public SaaS companies
12x forward revenue
benchmark
Thoma Bravo Anaplan acquisition (March 2022)
26percent of revenue
median
Public SaaS companies
45percent of revenue
median
Public SaaS companies
-3.8percent
actual
Month-over-month, March 2022