cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-03-29 · 797d

Clouded Judgement: Q4 2023 SaaS Earnings Analysis & Valuation Multiples

Q4 2023 earnings season showed modest performance with 87% of SaaS companies beating consensus estimates and median guidance in line with expectations, indicating stabilization without acceleration. The article provides comprehensive SaaS operating metrics (75% median gross margin, 110% median NRR, 13% median NTM growth) and analyzes valuation multiples across growth segments, showing high-growth companies trading at 10.7x revenue versus low-growth at 4.5x. The analysis suggests the SaaS market has normalized after ZIRP-era excesses with minimal full-year forecast revisions post-earnings.

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Metrics in this report

Beat Consensus

87percent

median

Percentage of SaaS companies beating consensus estimates, Q4 2023

CAC Payback Period

39months

median

Public SaaS companies

Customer Acquisition Cost Payback

39months

median

Gross margin adjusted CAC payback, SaaS companies, Q4 2023

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

6.4multiple

median

Public SaaS companies in Q4 2024

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - High Growth

10.7multiple

median

SaaS companies with >27% projected NTM growth

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - Low Growth

4.5multiple

median

SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple - Mid Growth

9.2multiple

median

SaaS companies with 15-27% projected NTM growth

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (High Growth)

10.7x

median

Companies with >27% projected NTM growth, Q4 2023

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Low Growth)

4.5x

median

Companies with <15% projected NTM growth, Q4 2023

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Mid Growth)

9.2x

median

Companies with 15-27% projected NTM growth, Q4 2023

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Overall)

6.4x

median

All SaaS companies at scale in public markets, Q4 2023

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple (Top 5 Companies)

17.8x

median

Top 5 SaaS companies by market cap, Q4 2023

Free Cash Flow Margin

11percent

median

Public SaaS companies with positive FCF

Free Cash Flow Margin

11percent

median

SaaS companies at scale in public markets, Q4 2023

G&A as Percent of Revenue

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies

General & Administrative Spend

16percent

median

Percent of revenue, SaaS companies at scale, Q4 2023

Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

75percent

median

SaaS companies at scale in public markets, Q4 2023

Guided Above Consensus

56percent

median

Percentage of SaaS companies guiding above consensus for next quarter, Q4 2023

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

17percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

17percent

median

SaaS companies at scale in public markets, Q4 2023

Missed Consensus

13percent

median

Percentage of SaaS companies missing consensus estimates, Q4 2023

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

13percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

13percent

median

SaaS companies at scale in public markets, Q4 2023

Net Revenue Retention

110percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

110percent

median

SaaS companies at scale in public markets, Q4 2023

Operating Margin

-11percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

11percent

median

SaaS companies at scale in public markets, Q4 2023

R&D as Percent of Revenue

25percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Research & Development Spend

25percent

median

Percent of revenue, SaaS companies at scale, Q4 2023

S&M as Percent of Revenue

41percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Sales & Marketing Spend

41percent

median

Percent of revenue, SaaS companies at scale, Q4 2023