cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2022-03-25 · 1532d

Clouded Judgement: Inflation, Rate Risk, and SaaS Valuation Multiples

The article analyzes two competing inflation narratives—transitory vs. persistent de-globalization-driven inflation—and their implications for Fed rate policy and SaaS software valuations. It presents current SaaS multiples benchmarking data (median 9.5x EV/NTM revenue) and operating metrics across the public SaaS cohort, contextualized within macro uncertainty around recession risk and valuation compression.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback Period

23months

median

Public SaaS cohort (GM-adjusted basis)

Enterprise Value / NTM Revenue Multiple

9.5x

median

Public SaaS cohort overall

Enterprise Value / NTM Revenue Multiple

32.8x

median

Top 10 public SaaS companies by EV

Enterprise Value / NTM Revenue Multiple

13.7x

median

High-growth SaaS (>30% projected NTM growth)

Enterprise Value / NTM Revenue Multiple

9.5x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15–30% projected NTM growth)

Enterprise Value / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.1x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% projected NTM growth)

Free Cash Flow Margin

2percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

General & Administrative as % of Revenue

19percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Gross Margin

74percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

LTM Revenue Growth Rate

33percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

NTM Revenue Growth Rate

26percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Net Revenue Retention

120percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Operating Margin

-22percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Research & Development as % of Revenue

26percent

median

Public SaaS cohort

Sales & Marketing as % of Revenue

45percent

median

Public SaaS cohort