cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-03-15 · 811d

Clouded Judgement: Q4 '23 SaaS Earnings Recap & Valuation Analysis

This article provides a comprehensive Q4 2023 SaaS earnings season analysis, tracking median metrics including YoY growth deceleration (now at 17% LTM), declining net retention (110% median), and expanding FCF margins (11% median). The author benchmarks valuation multiples across growth cohorts and introduces adjusted CAC payback metrics while highlighting concerns about SBC dilution masking true profitability in high-growth companies.

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Metrics in this report

10-Year Public SaaS Multiple Trend

4.3percent

Long-term CAGR of EV/NTM revenue multiples

CAC Payback Period

38months

median

Public SaaS companies, Q3 '23

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

6.2x

median

Overall public SaaS cohort, Q4 '23

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

19.0x

median

Top 5 highest-valued public SaaS companies, Q4 '23

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

10.0x

median

High-growth SaaS (>27% NTM growth), Q4 '23

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

9.3x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15%-27% NTM growth), Q4 '23

EV / NTM Revenue Multiple

4.5x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth), Q4 '23

Free Cash Flow Margin

11percent

median

Public SaaS companies, Q4 '23

G&A % of Revenue

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies, Q4 '23

Gross Margin

76percent

median

Public SaaS companies, Q4 '23

Net Revenue Retention

110percent

median

Public SaaS companies, Q3 '23

Operating Margin

-11percent

median

Public SaaS companies, Q4 '23

R&D % of Revenue

25percent

median

Public SaaS companies, Q4 '23

Sales & Marketing % of Revenue

42percent

median

Public SaaS companies, Q4 '23

YoY Revenue Growth

17percent

median

Public SaaS companies, LTM basis, Q3 '23