Clouded Judgement: Venture Market Froth and SaaS Valuation Reality Check
The article warns that venture markets are exhibiting 2021-like bubble dynamics—high valuations (>100x ARR), preempted rounds, FOMO-driven investing, and board skepticism of inflated term sheets—despite genuine AI platform opportunity. It provides comprehensive SaaS benchmarking data showing median 6.2x NTM revenue multiples, 13% median growth, and 110% NRR across public software companies, with top-growth companies commanding 13.6x multiples while generating negative operating margins.
Metrics in this report
38months
median
Public SaaS companies
114x
median
Top 10 SaaS companies by EV/NTM revenue (subset with positive FCF)
6.2x
median
Overall public SaaS companies
19.6x
median
Top 5 highest-valued SaaS companies by multiple
13.6x
median
High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth)
10.1x
median
Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth)
4.3x
median
Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)
10percent
median
Public SaaS companies
16percent
median
Public SaaS companies
75percent
median
Public SaaS companies
17percent
median
Public SaaS companies
13percent
median
Public SaaS companies
110percent
median
Public SaaS companies
-12percent
median
Public SaaS companies
25percent
median
Public SaaS companies
42percent
median
Public SaaS companies