cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-03-01 · 825d

Clouded Judgement: Venture Market Froth and SaaS Valuation Reality Check

The article warns that venture markets are exhibiting 2021-like bubble dynamics—high valuations (>100x ARR), preempted rounds, FOMO-driven investing, and board skepticism of inflated term sheets—despite genuine AI platform opportunity. It provides comprehensive SaaS benchmarking data showing median 6.2x NTM revenue multiples, 13% median growth, and 110% NRR across public software companies, with top-growth companies commanding 13.6x multiples while generating negative operating margins.

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Metrics in this report

CAC Payback

38months

median

Public SaaS companies

EV/NTM FCF Multiple

114x

median

Top 10 SaaS companies by EV/NTM revenue (subset with positive FCF)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

6.2x

median

Overall public SaaS companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

19.6x

median

Top 5 highest-valued SaaS companies by multiple

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

13.6x

median

High-growth SaaS (>30% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

10.1x

median

Mid-growth SaaS (15-30% NTM growth)

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

4.3x

median

Low-growth SaaS (<15% NTM growth)

FCF Margin

10percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A as % Revenue

16percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Growth Rate

17percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Growth Rate

13percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

110percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-12percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D as % Revenue

25percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Sales & Marketing as % Revenue

42percent

median

Public SaaS companies