Clouded Judgement: COVID Pull Forward vs. Durable Trend in Cloud Software Valuations

The article analyzes how COVID-19 affected cloud software companies across three distinct buckets: fake TAM creation, one-time pull forward, and durable pull forward trends. The author argues that correctly identifying which bucket each company falls into is critical for predicting future growth and valuation multiple compression as pull forward effects normalize. The piece includes detailed SaaS operating metrics, valuation multiples benchmarks, and the Rule of 40 framework to contextualize public company performance.