cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2024-02-02 · 853d

Clouded Judgement: Cloud Giants Report Q4'23

The article analyzes Q4 2023 earnings from AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, noting a shift from cost optimization headwinds to new workload growth tailwinds, particularly driven by AI adoption. While hyperscalers show strength with AWS growing 13% YoY and Azure/Google Cloud at 28% and 26% respectively, the author questions whether this momentum translates to the broader SaaS market given hyperscalers' unique AI advantage. The piece provides detailed YoY growth rates, net new ARR metrics, valuation multiples, and operating metrics across the SaaS industry.

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Metrics in this report

AWS YoY Growth Rate

13percent

median

Q4 2023, constant currency

Azure YoY Growth Rate

28percent

median

Q4 2023, constant currency

CAC Payback

38months

median

Public SaaS companies

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - High Growth (>30%)

14.9x

median

High-growth SaaS cohort

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Low Growth (<15%)

4.3x

median

Low-growth SaaS cohort

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Mid Growth (15-30%)

9.9x

median

Mid-growth SaaS cohort

EV/NTM Revenue Multiple - Overall

6.0x

median

All public SaaS companies

FCF Margin

8percent

median

Public SaaS companies

G&A as % of Revenue

17percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Google Cloud YoY Growth Rate

26percent

median

Q4 2023, not constant currency

Gross Margin

75percent

median

Public SaaS companies

LTM Growth Rate

20percent

median

Public SaaS companies

NTM Growth Rate

13percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Net Revenue Retention

112percent

median

Public SaaS companies

Operating Margin

-13percent

median

Public SaaS companies

R&D as % of Revenue

26percent

median

Public SaaS companies

S&M as % of Revenue

43percent

median

Public SaaS companies