cloudedjudgement.substack.com · 2026-02-20 · 104d

Clouded Judgement: The SSD/Memory Reckoning

The article analyzes the shift from GPU-constrained to memory-constrained AI infrastructure, driven by the transition from training-heavy to inference-heavy workloads and explosive data generation from AI pipelines. A global NAND shortage has created a 'flash tax' that increases deployment costs and forces enterprises to reconsider AI infrastructure economics. The piece argues that efficient data orchestration and architectural optimization are now as critical as raw compute for AI scaling.

15 metrics· Cited 0× in the knowledge base ·Open source ↗

Metrics in this report

10-Year SaaS Multiple Change

4.1percent

average

10-year annual change in SaaS multiples

High Growth SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

10.7multiple

median

SaaS companies with >22% projected NTM growth

Low Growth SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

2.7multiple

median

SaaS companies with <15% projected NTM growth

Median CAC Payback Period

36months

median

SaaS companies in Jamin Ball's quarterly report sample

Median FCF Margin

19percent

median

SaaS companies in Jamin Ball's quarterly report sample

Median G&A Spend as % Revenue

15percent

median

SaaS companies in Jamin Ball's quarterly report sample

Median Gross Margin

76percent

median

SaaS companies in Jamin Ball's quarterly report sample

Median NTM Revenue Growth Rate

12percent

median

SaaS companies in Jamin Ball's quarterly report sample

Median Net Dollar Retention

108percent

median

SaaS companies in Jamin Ball's quarterly report sample

Median Operating Margin

-1percent

median

SaaS companies in Jamin Ball's quarterly report sample

Median R&D Spend as % Revenue

23percent

median

SaaS companies in Jamin Ball's quarterly report sample

Median S&M Spend as % Revenue

37percent

median

SaaS companies in Jamin Ball's quarterly report sample

Mid Growth SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

7.0multiple

median

SaaS companies with 15-22% projected NTM growth

Overall SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

3.2multiple

median

SaaS public companies in sample

Top 5 SaaS EV/NTM Revenue Multiple

18.4multiple

median

Top 5 highest-valued SaaS companies by multiple